XP Inc.

“XP Inc. is Brazil's dominant open-architecture investment platform earning 22-23% ROE on a structurally growing asset base, trading at 8x trailing and 6.5x forward earnings — a discount that reflects Brazil macro and FX anxiety, not business deterioration. The IFA distribution flywheel is intact, free cash flow generation is strong and clean, and the long-term tailwind of Brazilian financial deepening remains fully in place. Risks are real but not existential: BRL depreciation is the single largest threat to USD returns, while competitive pressure from BTG and Nubank is gradual rather than disruptive. At current prices, the margin of safety is sufficient to initiate and build a position in tranches.”