Union Pacific Corporation

“Union Pacific is a near-permanent franchise with a structurally impregnable moat and negligible risk of permanent capital impairment, but at ~19x forward earnings with minimal margin of safety, a shallow reinvestment runway, elevated leverage from buybacks, and a credible STB regulatory overhang, the expected return of 6-8% annually is insufficient to justify commitment at today's price — the right business at the wrong price.”