Tyler Technologies, Inc.

“Tyler Technologies is a structurally dominant, near-monopoly operator in U.S. local government software with sub-2% gross churn, >110% net revenue retention, and an FCF flywheel accelerating through a SaaS migration cycle. The stock has de-rated 54% from peak to ~19x trailing FCF — fair value, not a bargain, but a reasonable entry for a business with 5–10 years of high-return reinvestment runway and one of the deepest switching-cost moats in enterprise software. Risk of permanent impairment is genuinely low; the primary tail risk is a catastrophic cybersecurity breach that grows in severity as more government data migrates to Tyler's cloud. Expected 10-year return is a credible 2.5–3x, consistent with a BUY in 2–3 tranches near current prices.”