Texas Instruments Incorporated

“Texas Instruments is one of the highest-quality franchises in the semiconductor industry — a durable analog moat widening through a 300mm manufacturing buildout, two decades of disciplined FCF/share compounding, and structural tailwinds from industrial and automotive electrification. However, at $278.68 and 47.7x trough earnings, the stock is priced near or slightly above base-case intrinsic value with no meaningful margin of safety. The only permanent impairment risk is China geopolitical displacement (~20-25% probability), which the current price does not adequately compensate. A 15-20% pullback to the $220-240 range would transform the risk/reward from uninspiring to genuinely compelling; until then, this is a franchise to track, not a position to build.”