TE Connectivity plc

“TE Connectivity is a high-quality industrial compounder with genuine spec-in switching costs, a structural EV content uplift thesis, disciplined capital returns, and conservative financial leverage — all the hallmarks of a business worth owning. The moat is durable but not widening, organic growth is mid-single-digit, and the business sits structurally behind Amphenol on growth mix. At ~16x forward earnings and ~$206, the stock is fairly priced with a ~9% expected annualized return, providing little margin of safety. The most serious long-term risk is Chinese OEM supply chain displacement, which could erode the automotive revenue base faster than EV content uplift compensates. The right action is to track for a pullback to the $170–$185 range, which would provide the margin of safety the current price does not.”