TCPL Packaging Limited

“TCPL Packaging is India's largest folding carton converter with above-cost-of-capital returns (~18% ROCE) and Tata governance, but a narrow moat in a fragmented market, aggressive debt-funded expansion compressing near-term returns, and a 29x trough P/E valuation leave no margin of safety. The completed capex cycle should drive an earnings recovery, but the stock already prices this in. A decent business at an unremarkable price — worth tracking for entry 20-25% lower where risk/reward tilts favorably.”