Shopify Inc.

“Shopify is a category-defining commerce infrastructure platform with a widening multi-layered moat, $5.7B net cash, 20%+ FCF margins, and a secular growth runway that extends for decades — but at ~70x FY2025 free cash flow and 11x trailing revenue, the valuation demands sustained 25%+ FCF compounding for a full decade to generate even a 3–4x return, leaving almost no margin of safety for the unexpected. The business deserves ownership; the current price does not deserve capital allocation. A 20–30% further drawdown to the $75–90 range would create a genuine fat-pitch entry.”