The Progressive Corporation

“Progressive is the best-run personal auto insurer in the U.S., operating a self-reinforcing telematics flywheel that compounds its underwriting edge over time. At $211.49 (~11x TTM earnings, 12% FCF yield) on 37.9% ROE, the price embeds an earnings collapse that the franchise does not justify. With a decade-long reinvestment runway, transparent management, and cyclical-only risks, this is a high-conviction long-term buy — sized in tranches to absorb near-term earnings normalization from the 2025 peak.”