Otis Worldwide Corporation

“Otis operates one of the most defensible recurring-revenue models in global industrials — a 2.2-million-unit installed service base with multi-decade switching costs, safety-driven regulatory inertia, and IoT data compounding — generating $1.4-1.5B in free cash flow annually with ~105% conversion and 20%+ ROIC on operating capital. At $72.97, roughly 30% below its 52-week high, China new equipment pessimism has compressed the stock to 15.5x forward earnings and a 6% FCF yield — pricing the franchise as though the service moat were impaired, which it structurally is not. The permanent impairment risk is low; this is uncertainty, not risk. A 2-2.5x total return over 10 years is credible at current prices via service margin expansion, aggressive buybacks, and 10% annual dividend growth. Buy in two to three tranches, reserving capacity for further China-driven weakness.”