Nu Holdings Ltd.

“Nu Holdings is a category-defining digital bank compounding earnings at 55% with 30%+ ROE, trading at just 11x forward earnings — a valuation that prices in deceleration far steeper than any reasonable scenario implies. Brazil is proven and profitable; Mexico and Colombia are replicating the trajectory on a multi-year lag. The moat is widening via a data flywheel across 114 million customers and rising switching costs as ARPAC deepens from card into a full financial OS. The dominant permanent risk is Brazilian regulatory intervention on credit pricing (~20% probability), not competitive displacement. At current prices, that risk is well-compensated. Tranche in over 6–12 months; accelerate if LatAm macro weakness pushes the stock back toward $11.”