Micron Technology, Inc.

“Micron is a real business with a genuine structural upgrade underway — HBM adoption, AI-driven memory intensity, and a durable DRAM oligopoly provide a credible multi-year tailwind — but the stock at $1.01T market cap embeds a supercycle permanence that has never existed in memory semiconductors. Through-cycle FCF remains thin, the capex treadmill is unrelenting, and a combination of China geopolitical risk and DRAM oversupply remains a credible path to permanent impairment. The forward P/E of 8.6x is seductive but characteristic of every memory cycle peak. Wait for a 35–45% drawdown that begins to price in cycle risk before initiating a position in measured tranches.”