HubSpot, Inc.

“HubSpot is a structurally sound, above-average SaaS business with a genuine SMB moat, elite gross margins, and an operating leverage story that is just beginning to materialize — but reported FCF of ~$577M masks true owner earnings of roughly $147M after $430M in annual SBC, placing the real P/FCF at ~69x on a $10B market cap. The 70% drawdown from peak has made the stock far less absurd than it was, and permanent capital loss risk is low given the clean balance sheet, but paying 70x real owner earnings for a business facing AI-native disruption risk, NRR compression, and management-level indifference to dilution does not provide sufficient margin of safety for a long-term investor to act with conviction today.”