General Dynamics Corporation

“General Dynamics is a rare combination of structurally irreplaceable defense franchises and a durable business aviation moat, supported by a $91B+ backlog, above-WACC returns, disciplined management, and low probability of permanent capital impairment. The fundamental thesis is compelling and high-conviction. The obstacle is valuation: at ~18.7x forward earnings and no meaningful margin of safety, the 10-year return path is a reliable 8-10% CAGR — solid but not exceptional. The right action is to track for a 15-17x entry opportunity (~$285-305), at which point this becomes a high-conviction buy. Existing holders should hold without hesitation.”