First Solar, Inc.

“First Solar possesses a genuine 25-year CdTe technology moat, a net-cash balance sheet, and strong reported economics — but roughly $800M–$1B in annual IRA Section 45X manufacturing credits underpin ~50–60% of reported earnings, making the investment thesis structurally a policy bet. At 11.8x forward earnings the valuation appears cheap, but strip out regulatory support and the business trades at 25–30x real economics against Chinese competitors with structural cost advantages. The permanent-impairment scenario — partial or full 45X repeal — is credible and could destroy 55–70% of equity value. Track for policy clarity or a lower entry price in the $160–190 range before committing capital.”