Expedia Group, Inc.

“Expedia generates real FCF from a scaled OTA platform with genuine B2B infrastructure, but structural Google/AI disintermediation risk, a narrowing consumer moat, poor governance, and limited reinvestment runway produce an uninspiring return profile of 8-10% annually — acceptable but not compelling for long-term capital. At 11x forward earnings the stock is statistically cheap, but the discount to Booking Holdings is justified and the probability-weighted upside is insufficient to generate high conviction. This is a hold for existing shareholders, not a new position.”