The Walt Disney Company

“Disney's IP-parks-streaming flywheel is structurally sound and the FY2025 earnings recovery ($10.1B FCF, $19.1B EBITDA) is real, but at ~10.9x EV/EBITDA the stock is priced to execute flawlessly on two simultaneous unproven bets — a $60B parks capex cycle and ESPN's DTC launch — leaving insufficient margin of safety for a conviction buy; the business deserves a place on every long-term investor's watchlist, with a compelling entry around $80–85 or on confirmed ESPN DTC subscriber economics.”