CSX Corporation

“CSX owns one of the most durable competitive moats in North American infrastructure — a permanent eastern rail chokepoint that cannot be replicated — but the compounding engine has stalled: EBITDA down 17%, FCF halved, and capex rising since 2022, while coal secular decline and PSR volume losses leave no organic growth catalyst. The stock trades near its 52-week high at 29x trailing earnings with deteriorating fundamentals, offering essentially no margin of safety and making above-average long-term returns from today's entry implausible. The thesis is not broken; the price is wrong.”