Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd

“CPKC is an exceptional franchise — the only tri-national North American railroad, protected by irreplaceable infrastructure and benefiting from a decade-long nearshoring tailwind — but it currently trades at full price near 15x EV/EBITDA with $23B in net debt, an operating ratio still 4–5 points above best-in-class peers, and a free cash flow yield of barely 2%. The thesis is credible; the margin of safety is not. The stock should be tracked for a 15–20% price correction (toward CAD 96–100) that would provide a genuine entry point for a long-term position, with tranched buying rather than a full allocation given the lingering execution and Mexico political risk.”