Coal India Ltd

“Coal India is a government-administered volume monopoly generating strong near-term cash flows but declining earnings power — ROCE has collapsed from 78% to 35% in three years, OPM compressed from 33% to 24% in FY2026, and EPS is in a declining trend, all while management has zero pricing autonomy and no incentive alignment with minority shareholders. The balance sheet is clean, dividends are real, and India's coal dependency prevents near-term permanent impairment; but incremental capex destroys value, the energy transition is a structural ceiling, and expected 10-year total returns of 4–6% annualized do not justify locking up capital in a melting business at a fair — not cheap — multiple.”