Carrier Global Corporation

“Carrier Global is a good-but-not-exceptional climate industrial with genuine secular tailwinds from refrigerant transitions, European heat pump electrification, and IRA incentives, supported by a moderate moat in contractor channels and aftermarket services. The defining overhang is the €12B Viessmann acquisition — done at a rich multiple at a cyclical peak — which has elevated leverage to ~3.5x net debt/EBITDA and compressed ROIC toward WACC, consuming near-term FCF in delevering. At 21x forward earnings and $67.62 per share, the current price is fair-to-full for a leveraged industrial with an unproven acquisition, offering roughly 14% probability-weighted upside and a 15–20% tail risk of permanent impairment if European climate policy retreats. The right posture is to track for a better entry near $58–62 (~17–18x forward), where the risk/reward becomes genuinely compelling.”