Bloom Energy Corporation

“Bloom Energy sits at the intersection of real secular tailwinds (AI data center power, distributed generation) with differentiated SOFC technology, but 25 years of GAAP losses, $2.8B in freshly doubled debt, ~2% ROIC, and a $38B market cap pricing in flawless multi-year execution make this a textbook case of a compelling narrative at a dangerous price. Probability-weighted intrinsic value of ~$33/share implies 75% downside. The business has genuinely improved, but the stock has improved 15x more than the business warrants. Capital is far better deployed in companies that have proven they can compound shareholder wealth, not ones that promise to start doing so after a quarter-century of value destruction.”