ASML Holding N.V.

“ASML remains one of the best businesses in global equities: dominant at the critical lithography choke point, supported by extraordinary technical barriers, strong returns on capital, and a long runway through EUV, High-NA, and service revenue. The investment case weakens at the current price, however, because valuation already discounts a large share of the likely 2030 upside and leaves limited margin of safety against geopolitical friction, customer capex cyclicality, or slower-than-expected High-NA monetization. This is a high-quality franchise worth owning at the right price, but today it looks more like a disciplined watchlist compounder than an obvious bargain.”