VAT Group AG

“VAT Group is an exceptional business — near-monopoly in a structurally growing niche, widening moat, exceptional returns on capital, and a secular AI/advanced-node tailwind — but at CHF 620 (44x forward earnings, 87x trailing, at 52-week highs), the price embeds near-perfection with zero margin of safety; probability-weighted expected returns from today's entry are deeply negative, and the right action is to track for a cycle-driven re-entry in the CHF 280–350 range where the business quality would be compensated with asymmetric upside.”