UBS Group AG

“UBS possesses a genuine and widening moat in cross-border UHNW wealth management — the world's largest platform with real Swiss brand trust and client stickiness — but the investment case is not compelling today. Underlying ROTE of ~7% sits below cost of equity, the Swiss TBTF capital surcharge legislation passed in 2025 poses a binary risk to structural ROE, and the stock at 1.51x P/B and 11.2x forward P/E prices in near-complete integration success with minimal margin of safety. The path to 15%+ ROTE is credible but conditional on regulatory outcomes the company cannot control. This is a good business in an improving but unresolved situation — worth owning at the right price and with more clarity, not at current levels.”