Tech Mahindra Ltd.

“Tech Mahindra is a below-average Indian IT services business with a telecom-concentrated revenue base under structural compression, the weakest margins in its peer group, a capital allocation track record that destroyed shareholder value over FY2019–2024, and genuine permanent impairment risk from AI-driven labor displacement. The Fortius margin recovery is credible but only closes the gap to where peers already stand — it does not fix the growth problem or the moat problem. At 27x trailing and 17x forward earnings, the stock prices in a flawless execution scenario with no margin of safety, delivering a probability-weighted 10-year return of roughly 1.5–2x that fails to compensate for the structural risks embedded in the business. Capital is materially better deployed elsewhere in Indian IT or globally.”