SIG Group AG

“SIG Group owns a structurally sound aseptic carton business with durable switching costs and emerging market tailwinds, but the 2022 Scholle IPN acquisition elevated net leverage to ~3.5-4x EBITDA, diluted margins, and consumed all capital allocation flexibility — leaving equity as a leveraged residual with limited margin of safety at ~11x EV/EBITDA and ~18x adjusted earnings. The 10-year return scenario is a modest 1.5-2x, not a compounder. The business is worth owning, but only at a price that compensates for the leverage overhang; a re-entry near CHF 9-10 with visible progress on deleveraging and Scholle integration would shift the risk/reward to investable.”