Shopify Inc.

“Shopify is structurally one of the best software businesses available — a self-reinforcing commerce OS with compounding switching costs, a dominant ecosystem, and FCF that has inflected from negative to $2B in three years. However, at ~67x trailing FCF and ~11x revenue, the price fully discounts the bull case, leaving a probability-weighted 10-year return of approximately 7-9% USD CAGR — insufficient for the risk and uncertainty involved. The payment take-rate is the critical watch variable; any structural compression there breaks the thesis permanently. Track for entry in the CAD 85-105 range, where the return profile improves to 12-15% CAGR with a genuine margin of safety.”