Saregama India Ltd

“Saregama is a genuinely exceptional Indian IP compounder — an irreplaceable 500,000+ song catalogue earning recurring royalties from a structurally growing digital streaming market, backed by a near-debt-free balance sheet, competent management, and a real moat that widens as India's DSP ecosystem matures. However, at 30-31x forward earnings with EPS growing at only ~6-8% CAGR and recent revenue declining sharply from the FY2025 peak, the current price offers a probable 10-year return of only 5-7% annually under base-case assumptions — adequate but not compelling relative to the opportunity cost of capital. The stock is best tracked for a meaningful pullback toward INR 320-350, where entry at 25-26x forward earnings would provide a margin of safety sufficient to justify a long-term position.”