Steel Authority of India Ltd.

“SAIL combines every characteristic of a structurally bad long-term investment: sub-WACC returns through the full cycle, a PSU governance structure that prevents effective capital discipline, chronic market share losses to more efficient private-sector competitors, balance sheet leverage that amplifies cycle risk, and a management team with no equity stake and no accountability. India's steel demand growth is real, but SAIL is the wrong vehicle — private operators will continue to capture the majority of incremental volume and margin. At ~9.5x forward EV/EBITDA near a 52-week high, the market is pricing in recovery for a business whose competitive position is durably deteriorating. The probability-weighted long-term outcome is slow-motion capital impairment.”