Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd

“OCBC is a genuinely durable business — an oligopoly bank with a compounding private banking franchise, conservative balance sheet, and aligned governance — but at SGD 22.00 (1.64x book, 12.3x forward earnings), the market has already priced in most of the quality. The implied 8-10% total annual return in the base case is adequate but not compelling enough to override thin margin of safety when NIM headwinds, GEH integration risk, and a non-trivial US-China geopolitical tail are all present. This is a TRACK with high conviction in the business; the missing ingredient is price.”