Norsk Hydro ASA

“Norsk Hydro is a well-run but fundamentally commodity-anchored business whose through-cycle ROIC barely covers cost of capital, whose moat protects from failure but not mediocrity, and whose current valuation — near 52-week highs at 31.6x trailing earnings with a probability-weighted intrinsic value roughly 45% below market cap — offers no margin of safety; Chinese structural overcapacity is a permanent earnings ceiling, management capital allocation has been consistently below average, and the green-metal premium that justifies the valuation premium remains thin and partially replicable, making this an avoid at current prices.”