Neste Oyj

“Neste possesses genuine NEXBTL process technology and a credible SAF mandate tailwind, but a cycle-peak capital allocation blunder has left it with elevated debt, a 2% ROE, an unsustainable dividend, and a valuation that already embeds a near-10x earnings recovery — while three concurrent structural headwinds (renewable diesel overcapacity, IRA-advantaged US competition, and balance sheet fragility) are mutually reinforcing. There is no margin of safety at EUR 24.69, and the business is currently destroying shareholder value. This is a capital repair story at best, not a compounder.”