Global Health Ltd.

“Global Health (Medanta) is a genuinely good business — premium quaternary care brand, founder-aligned management, clean balance sheet, and a structural multi-decade tailwind in India's underpenetrated private hospital market. The operating engine is intact with ₹6.24B operating cash flow in FY2025 and consistent 18-20% revenue growth. However, at 64.9x trailing P/E and ~37x EV/EBITDA, the price already front-loads most of the compounding, leaving expected returns barely above India's risk-free rate. FCF turned negative in FY2025 as expansion capex surged, new hospital ramp-up drag will persist through FY2027, and key-person succession risk from Dr. Trehan (age 73) is unresolved. The investment thesis is compelling; the current price is not. Target entry at ₹950–1,050 (20–25% below current levels) where the risk-reward becomes genuinely attractive.”