Kajaria Ceramics Ltd.

“Kajaria Ceramics is India's best-run tile company — net cash, high ROCE, and a genuinely durable distribution network — but it operates in a structurally competitive market where Morbi unorganized producers permanently cap pricing power and incremental returns are drifting lower. At 47.6x trailing earnings, the current price discounts a compounding trajectory the business is unlikely to achieve; a probability-weighted fair value sits approximately 10% below market, and an honest 10-year return from here is a low-single-digit CAGR. The business deserves a place on a watchlist, not a portfolio at this price.”