Indian Oil Corporation Limited

“IOC is India's largest refiner but a poor investment — government control subordinates capital allocation to political imperatives, ROCE has halved while assets doubled, and the optically cheap 5x P/E masks normalized earnings that offer no margin of safety. With 1-2% probability-weighted long-term CAGR, high governance risk, and no catalyst for structural improvement, minority shareholders bear commodity cyclicality downside with capped upside. BPCL is superior within the PSU OMC universe; outside it, there are far better uses of capital in Indian equities.”