InterContinental Hotels Group PLC

“IHG is a structurally excellent franchise royalty business with 26% ROIC, a compounding 130M-member loyalty moat, and a decade-long reinvestment runway — but at 22.4x forward earnings with no margin of safety, the 10-year return path of 8-9% annualized is adequate rather than compelling; the right move is to track for a 15-20% pullback before committing meaningful capital.”