Hindalco Industries Limited

“Hindalco owns Novelis, a genuinely moaty aluminum recycler with structural tailwinds from EVs and lightweighting, but the investment case at current prices is undermined by ~$9-10B net debt at Novelis (~4-5x EBITDA), a $4.1B Bay Minette greenfield commitment suppressing FCF, and blended group ROIC of only 8-10% — barely above cost of capital. The stock at ₹1,037 is near fair value and near its 52-week high, leaving no margin of safety if execution disappoints. A 2–2.5x 10-year return is the base case, implying an ~8-10% CAGR that matches rather than beats a diversified equity index. TRACK and re-engage at ₹800–850 if the risk-reward improves.”