Equatorial Energia SA

“Equatorial Energia is a well-run regulated utility holding company with a proven distressed-acquisition playbook, durable geographic monopolies, and a long reinvestment runway — but at 24x forward earnings with 195% debt/equity and a 7% ROE, the market prices in full execution across simultaneous expansion fronts (distribution, transmission, sanitation) with no discount for EM regulatory or leverage risk; the probability-weighted 5-year return of ~5% annualized is inadequate, making this a business to own at the right price rather than right now.”