Embraer SA

“Embraer holds a de facto monopoly in modern Western regional jets, a $26.3B record backlog, near-zero net leverage, and improving ROIC across a post-Boeing-JV recovery — but at ~15-16x forward EV/EBIT, execution is already priced in, governance is structurally constrained by the Brazilian government golden share, and the normalized FCF profile is shallower than cycle-peak metrics suggest; the business deserves ownership at the right price, and that price is 10-15% below current levels.”