Holcim Ltd

CSGN.SWEBS

5.1/10

NEUTRALIf owned: TRIM

“Post-Amrize Holcim is a regionally moated, cash-generative cement business with clean leverage and reliable dividends, but ROIC barely clears WACC, organic growth is capped at 2-3%, the transformative CEO is departing, and the valuation at ~6.5x EV/EBITDA offers no margin of safety — a fair price for an average business is not a compelling investment case for long-horizon capital.”

CMP

N/A

Market Cap

N/A

Exp CAGR (2031)

N/A

Est MCap

CHF 24.00B

Analyzed

May 7, 2026

Segments

12 / 12

Business Quality5.5

Moat Strength5.5

Financial Health6.5

Management Quality5.5

Growth Runway3.5

Valuation4.5

Risk Level5.5

Overall4.5

12 sections

Valuation Estimate

Target: 2031 (5yr horizon)

Current MCap

N/A

Bear Case

CHF 9.00B

Base Case

CHF 24.00B

Bull Case

CHF 40.00B

Base case assumes ~3.5% organic EBITDA CAGR to CHF 4.0B by 2031 (margin expansion from 23.5% to ~25%), re-rated modestly to 7x EV/EBITDA as the Solutions & Products mix improves — producing CHF 24B equity value. This assumes management partially delivers on its 27-28% margin target but falls short of the full goal. If guidance is fully met, the bull case at CHF 40B becomes likely.

Holcim Ltd

Business Economics

Market Overview

Competitive Moat

Financial Strength

Reinvestment Runway

Peer Comparison

Management Orientation

Management Competence & Ethics

Valuation

Long-Term Valuation

Risk Assessment

Final Verdict