Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Limited

“Crompton's core fans-and-pumps ECD business is a real, India-tailwind-backed franchise, but the consolidated entity — dragged by secular lighting decline and a slow-to-integrate Butterfly acquisition — earns only ~13–15% ROCE, barely above its cost of capital. PE promoters remain structural sellers, BLDC-native disruptors are eroding the fans moat, and at 37x trailing earnings the transformation thesis is already partially priced in, implying only ~9–10% CAGR returns through FY2031. The risk of permanent capital impairment is not existential but is real; the reward for taking it is insufficient. Capital is better deployed in higher-quality compounders.”