CCR SA

“CCR SA is a legally protected infrastructure monopoly with inflation-linked revenues, 30-35 year concession terms, and a record investment cycle that is building long-duration cashflow assets at real IRRs above cost of capital. The market is pricing trough-cycle FCF suppression as if it is permanent — it is not. At ~6x EV/EBITDA, the discount to global infrastructure peers is excessive even accounting for Brazil's sovereign risk premium and governance overhang from Lava Jato-connected shareholders. FCF conversion is expected by 2026-2027 as peak CapEx rolls off, and the concession portfolio will continue compounding through mandatory reinvestment in newly won highway contracts. The primary risks — regulatory renegotiation of tariff formulas, BRL depreciation, and the Mover/Bradesco pledge dispute — are real but non-base-case causes of permanent impairment. Buy in initial tranches (3-5% of portfolio) and size up to 7-8% as FCF conversion confirms the cycle turn.”