Adani Total Gas Limited

“ATGL operates a real regulated CGD monopoly in a structurally growing Indian gas market, but the investment case collapses on three fronts: valuation (89x earnings for a utility with declining ROCE and zero FCF implies 70-80% overvaluation versus intrinsic value of 106-153 per share), governance (US DOJ criminal bribery indictment of controlling shareholder Gautam Adani with potential TotalEnergies JV exit), and deteriorating economics (ROCE halved from 34% to sub-10%, incremental ROIC barely above cost of capital). Even perfect execution of the bull case delivers inadequate returns from the current price. This is a clear avoid for new capital and a sell for existing holders.”