Asian Paints Limited

“Asian Paints operates in a structurally attractive Indian paint market with a genuinely durable distribution network built over decades, but Birla Opus's well-capitalised entry has durably eroded market share from 59% to ~52% in 12 months, collapsed PAT by 33-45% in FY2025, and compressed ROIC from ~40% to ~17% — while the stock at 64x trailing earnings demands a full recovery in margins, market share, and growth that is simultaneously unlikely and already priced to perfection, making the risk of permanent return impairment high even if the risk of permanent business loss is low.”