Apollo Tyres Ltd.

“Apollo Tyres is a competently operated #2 Indian tyre manufacturer whose FCF inflection and balance sheet repair are genuine positives, but the narrow and narrowing moat in truck-bus radials due to Chinese competition, persistent European margin drag, and a capital allocation history of value-destructive overreach collectively prevent high-conviction ownership. At 13.5x forward earnings, the stock is fairly — not cheaply — priced, and the expected 10–11% annualized return barely compensates for the idiosyncratic risk of anti-dumping protection lapse, which remains the single largest permanent impairment scenario. India premiumization is a real tailwind but is captured more cleanly by MRF or CEAT without Europe as a structural drag. Insufficient conviction for a long-term portfolio allocation; capital is better deployed in businesses with wider moats or more compelling valuations.”