Aegis Logistics Ltd.

“Aegis Logistics owns one of the most durable infrastructure moats in Indian listed equities — a regulatory-protected LPG import terminal at Mumbai Port with captive PSU customers, a credible Vopak JV, and a multi-decade reinvestment runway in India's structural LPG demand growth. However, the market has appropriately priced this quality: at ~19x EV/EBITDA, probability-weighted returns are only ~9-10% CAGR, with thin downside protection, negative FCF during a heavy capex build-out, a 73% debt surge in FY2025, and ongoing related-party complexity from the AVTL restructuring. The business deserves patient monitoring — a correction to ~15-16x EV/EBITDA (~Rs 500-560) would make this a compelling entry with genuine margin of safety.”